Eliminating the mandatory long-form census may be spun as a "privacy" issue, but its real impact is on social analysis and policy development
Claiming their decision is a response to privacy concerns, the Harper government has scrapped the mandatory long-form in favor of a voluntary census, the National Household Survey,
now available online.1
This decision is ill-conceived and astonishingly short-sighted on its face, disingenuously framed as a matter of privacy to misdirect attention from the Harper government's underlying social policy agenda.
Far more important than the
increased administrative cost of a voluntary census are the
negative consequences of eliminating the mandatory long-form: skewed data from reduced response rates in specific demographics,
resulting in insufficient and inadequate data for long-term analyses, compromising the informed development of future social policy.
While Industry Minister Tony Clement has dismissed growing calls for him to reverse course, the decision is drawing harsh criticism from
just about everyone —
researchers,
economists, academics, service agencies and social workers,
medical professionals,
provincial and
city officials, as well as countless others, including businesses — who rely on the
detailed information generated by the mandatory long-form census.
In The Progressive Economics Forum, CCPA's senior economist Armine Yalnizyan posts a letter (13.07.10) in which
signatories from diverse organizations "from all parts of Canada’s social and economic spectrum"1
request a meeting with the Minister to discuss the decision. Another article by Yalnizyan, published in The Hill Times, provides background and concise commentary on the issue.
There is no possible compromise here: asking Canadians to live without accurate census data is like asking surgeons to operate in the dark. No matter how skilled they are, they will make mistakes.
Without this information, governments, businesses, community agencies and charities will be unable to plan for the optimal allocation of resources. Money will be wasted, and that means a lower
quality of life for all of us.
But the people who will pay the most dearly are those who were the most vulnerable to begin with, the poor, aboriginal populations, recent immigrants, racial minorities and people with disabilities.
Without this information, we cannot make informed decisions about where to plan the next extension of public transit, or where to target different types of health resources.
Are privacy concerns the underlying issue in the Harper government's approach? Have there been serious breaches of privacy with respect to any aspect of the census? "[A]ccording to the Office of the Privacy Commissioner, only three complaints were
laid about any aspect of the census in the last decade: two in 2006 and one in 2001."
"The number of complaints coming to us about the census has dropped in recent years," Privacy Commissioner spokeswoman Anne-Marie Hayden said.
The last time Canadians registered beefs on the census that were measured in the double digits was in 1996 – 14 years ago. And back then, the Privacy Commissioner’s office
only received 16 complaints. In 1991, the watchdog heard 33 complaints. [...]
Does the Harper government hope to cut social costs by obfuscating the identification of social need?
The poor and marginalized are among the demographics inadequately enumerated in the less reliable data collection of a voluntary abbreviated survey. Linda McQuaig writes that, "as income becomes ever more
concentrated at the top, as it has in recent years, we’ll know less and less about those at the bottom, making them easier to ignore."
So, as income becomes ever more concentrated at the top, as it has in recent years, we’ll know less and less about those at the bottom, making them easier to ignore.
Sam Boshra, a former analyst for Statistics Canada, puts it this way: “If this results in the poor and unemployed being undercounted, the government could justify reallocating resources
away from programs targeting these disadvantaged groups.”
Boshra notes that the long-form data is the basis for just about all of Statistics Canada’s important social measurements. The unemployment rate, for instance, is compiled from the monthly
Labour Force Survey, but the sample used in that survey is based on the census data. Once the census data becomes voluntary, the unemployment rate will be considered less reliable, taking
the heat off governments in times of rising unemployment.
Clement has suggested that Statistics Canada was on board with his decision, but the
resignation and comments of Munir Sheik, former head of StatsCan, seem to indicate the opposite. In the following interview,
Clement's elision and equivocation are evident. If I infer correctly, in response to the government's intent to proceed with the voluntary census, and the government's request for
strategies to eliminate the downside of such an approach, Statistics Canada responded; Clement then construed their response to indicate they were in agreement with the approach. But the decision to eliminate the mandatory
long-form was not in fact supported by StatsCan.
The Globe and Mail spoke to Industry Minister Tony Clement on Tuesday afternoon [20.07.10] about the debate surrounding the Conservative government's decision
to scrap the mandatory long-form census. A transcript of that interview follows.
Q: I'd like to clarify things. I thought you when you talked to me several days ago that you basically said to Statscan, "Look we want to do this, we want to get rid of the mandatory long-form,
and tell me what I need to do to make it so that there's no downside to that."
A: That is 100 per cent accurate. That is exactly what I said to them. [...]
Q: Ok... But the allegation [in later stories] is that's not what Statscan said, that [chief statistician Munir Sheikh] had said that you should not do this, we advise against
eliminating the mandatory long form.
A: I don't want to get into... I have to be careful because there is advice to cabinet [rules]. But that is, I would argue, not accurate.
Q: That Mr. Sheikh said you shouldn't do this?
A: I have to be careful what I saying here because It's my oath we're talking about.
There is no question that we wanted a change from the status quo. And there is no question that if we had not initiated the dialogue with Statistics Canada, Statistics Canada would
have gone ahead with the status quo.
But there is also no question that through the dialogue we had with Statscan, that I was able to report to my colleagues that there were ways we could mitigate the risk associated
with moving from a mandatory to a voluntary form. [...]
[Read the full transcript]
Munir Sheikh, the head of Statistics Canada, resigned Wednesday over the federal government's decision to scrap the mandatory long-form census.
Munir Sheikh, the head of Statistics Canada, announced his resignation Wednesday. Image Credit: Statistics Canada, via CBC.ca | |
"I want to take this opportunity to comment on a technical statistical issue which has become the subject of media discussion. This relates to the question
of whether a voluntary survey can become a substitute for a mandatory census," Sheikh said in a release.
Over the last month, opposition has mounted to the Conservative government's plan to turn Canada's mandatory long-form census into a voluntary survey — a move critics say
will produce a skewed or useless national demographic record. The government says it made the change because the long form was an invasion of privacy and it was coercive
to force Canadians to complete it. [Read More] | |
"It cannot," he said. "Under the circumstances, I have tendered my resignation to the prime minister."
The Conservative government announced at the end of June that the long-form part of the 2011 census will no longer be mandatory because of privacy concerns. Now, Canadians who
receive the long form can refuse to fill it out. [...]
Critics ranging from economists to anti-poverty groups say removing the mandatory questionnaire will hamper their ability to do their jobs.
Randy Hatfield, executive director of the Saint John Human Development Council, called the decision "incredibly short-sighted."
The non-profit group uses data derived from the long-form census to develop its anti-poverty recommendations.
"A lot of the work that we do looks at trends over time," Hatfield said.
"If all of a sudden you cut it off you're not able to measure with any degree of accuracy or relevancy, then you've really got problems. ...If you haven't got the evidence it's pretty
hard to argue in favour of retooling public policy." [...] |
